Theory of planned behavior in entrepreneurship
The Theory of Planned Behavior: The Science of Intention
Is entrepreneurship an accident, or a plan? According to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), starting a business is rarely a spur-of-the-moment decision. It is a calculated result of specific intentions.
Developed by Polish social psychologist Icek Ajzen (1991), this framework was originally designed to predict social behaviors like voting or dieting. Today, it is one of the most cited theories in entrepreneurship research.
The Core Premise: Intention is King
The most important determinant of an individual’s behavior is their Intention to engage in that behavior. Attitudes alone are not enough.
For example, if a potential voter thinks voting is a good thing (Attitude), they might stay home. But if they have a specific plan to vote (Intention), they are statistically likely to show up.
The Specificity Rule
The theory hangs on the concept of specificity. The link between intention and action is strongest when the plan is detailed.
- Weak Link: "I intend to start a business someday." (Vague)
- Strong Link: "I intend to start a software consulting firm in Austin within the next 6 months." (Specific)
When applied to entrepreneurship, the theory suggests that predicting who will become a founder requires measuring these specific intentions, rather than just looking at personality traits or demographics.
The "Full Mediation" Effect
For researchers, the TPB implies Full Mediation. This means that outside factors (Exogenous Factors) do not cause entrepreneurship directly; they must pass through "Intention" first.
The Wrong Model:
High Education → Entrepreneurship
The Correct TPB Model:
High Education → Increases Confidence (Self-Efficacy) → Creates Intention → Entrepreneurship
Intention acts as the bridge. Without the bridge, the factors (money, education, family history) are stranded and do not lead to action.
Critique: The Intention-Action Gap
Despite its popularity, there is skepticism about the theory due to the Intention-Action Gap.
Many people intend to start businesses but never do. Promoting entrepreneurial intentions (e.g., through university courses) may be useless if other blocking factors—such as a lack of capital or market access—prevent that intention from translating into action.
