Planned Behavior Theory and Entrepreneurship
Strong Academic Consensus
This theory is backed by extensive empirical data and is considered a foundational framework in modern entrepreneurship research (Lortie & Castrogiovanni, 2015; Kautonen et al., 2015).
Is entrepreneurship an accident, or a plan? According to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), starting a business is rarely a spur-of-the-moment decision. It is a calculated result of specific intentions.
Developed by Polish social psychologist Icek Ajzen (1991), this framework was originally designed to predict social behaviors like voting or dieting. Today, it stands as one of the most widely applied theoretical anchors in entrepreneurship, demonstrating that venture creation is an intentionally planned behavior best explained by attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control (Lortie & Castrogiovanni, 2015).
The Core Premise: Intention is King
The most important determinant of an individual’s behavior is their Intention to engage in that behavior. Attitudes alone are not enough.
For example, if a potential voter thinks voting is a good thing (Attitude), they might stay home. But if they have a specific plan to vote (Intention), they are statistically likely to show up.
Systematic reviews confirm that across the three TPB antecedents, attitude toward the behavior and perceived behavioral control (PBC) consistently emerge as the strongest, most direct drivers of entrepreneurial intent, whereas subjective norms frequently exhibit variable or context-dependent effects across different demographics and cultural environments (Lortie & Castrogiovanni, 2015).
The Specificity Rule
The theory hangs on the concept of specificity. The link between intention and action is strongest when the plan is detailed.
- Weak Link: "I intend to start a business someday." (Vague)
- Strong Link: "I intend to start a software consulting firm in Austin within the next 6 months." (Specific)
When applied to entrepreneurship, the theory suggests that predicting who will become a founder requires measuring these specific intentions, rather than just looking at personality traits or demographics.
The Full Mediation Effect
For researchers, the TPB implies Full Mediation. This means that outside factors (Exogenous Factors) do not cause entrepreneurship directly; they must pass through "Intention" first.
The Wrong Model:
High Education → Entrepreneurship
The Correct TPB Model:
High Education → Increases Confidence (Self-Efficacy / PBC) → Creates Intention → Entrepreneurship
Intention acts as the bridge. Without the bridge, background factors (financial capital, prior industry experience, family background) remain stranded and fail to translate directly into startup execution (Lortie & Castrogiovanni, 2015).
Critique: The Intention-Action Gap & Longitudinal Robustness
Despite its popularity, scholars historically questioned whether the TPB could reliably bridge the Intention-Action Gap—particularly because early research predominantly relied on cross-sectional university student samples measuring hypothetical intent rather than real venture launches (Lortie & Castrogiovanni, 2015).
However, robust longitudinal studies examining representative adult populations confirm that the TPB is highly predictive of real-world outcomes. Specifically, intentions and perceived behavioral control account for substantial variance (up to 39%) in subsequent startup actions over multi-year periods, establishing that entrepreneurial intentions are not merely aspirational rhetoric, but reliable statistical precursors to actual business gestation (Kautonen et al., 2015).
Related Theories
Entrepreneurship is a deliberate journey from intention to action. These frameworks explore the psychological and environmental forces that determine if a plan becomes a reality:
1. The Mind of the Planner
- Self-Efficacy Theory: The core engine behind the "Perceived Behavioral Control" required to form an intention.
- Expectancy Theory: How the perceived value of success shapes the foundational attitude toward the venture.
2. Closing the Gap
- Sensemaking: Moving from a vague idea to the "Strong Link" of a specific, actionable business map.
- Social Judgement Theory: How the "Subjective Norms" of your circle impact the legitimacy of your plans.
References
- Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179–211.
- Kautonen, T., Van Gelderen, M., & Fink, M. (2015). Robustness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting entrepreneurial intentions and actions. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 39(3), 655–674.
- Lortie, J., & Castogiovanni, G. (2015). The theory of planned behavior in entrepreneurship research: what we know and future directions. International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, 11(4), 935–957.
References
The Intention Action Gap
According to the Theory of Planned Behavior having the intent to act is not always enough to bridge the gap to actual behavior Allocate your limited energy into Attitude Norms and Control Can you generate enough momentum to clear the Action Threshold