Entrepreneurship Theories Asimov
The Psychohistory Encapsulator
Theory Category: Systemic MetaphorsIf the market is a Galactic Empire, then Entrepreneurship is the force that shortens the dark ages. This model views new ventures not as acts of individual heroism, but as statistical inevitabilities in the flow of Psychohistory.
The system maps theories to the Seldon Plan: predicting how vast economic aggregates shift, break, and rebuild.
I. The Seldon Plan (Macro-Deterministic Theories)
Psychohistory cannot predict the actions of a single individual, but it can predict the fall of a market. These theories view entrepreneurship as a result of environmental pressures.
- Population Ecology: The Mathematics of the Mob. Just as Seldon calculated the statistical flow of quadrillions of humans, this theory argues that environmental selection rates determine which organizational forms survive. The individual founder is irrelevant; only the population density matters.
- Institutional Theory: The Inertia of Empire. Institutions (The Emperor, The Church of Science) create the "Isomorphism" that forces organizations to look alike. Entrepreneurs are those who find the cracks in the Imperial bureaucracy.
- Economic Determinism: The inevitability of the Fall. Economic cycles dictate that when the rate of profit falls, new ventures must emerge to restore equilibrium. It is not a choice; it is math.
II. The Seldon Crisis (Process & Crisis Theories)
The Plan is designed to reach specific "nodes" or crises—moments where the internal and external pressures force the Foundation (the Venture) to evolve or die.
- Greiner’s Growth Model: The Crisis of Autonomy. Just as Terminus faced the crisis of the Four Kingdoms, every startup faces predictable crises of leadership, red tape, and control. The solution to one crisis inevitably plants the seeds for the next.
- Effectuation (Sarasvathy): The Salvor Hardin Approach. "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." When a crisis hits, you don't follow a grand predicted map (Causation); you leverage the means at hand (Who you are, what you know) to navigate the immediate threat.
III. The Encyclopedists (Knowledge & Innovation)
The First Foundation was established under the guise of creating the Encyclopaedia Galactica. In the knowledge economy, the accumulation and spillover of data is the primary driver of value.
- Knowledge Spillover Theory: The Library of Trantor. Incumbent firms (The Empire) hoard knowledge but fail to commercialize it (The Encyclopedia). Entrepreneurs are the ones who capture this "spilled" knowledge and turn it into innovation.
- Absorptive Capacity: Restoring the Technology. It is not enough to have the blueprints; the venture must have the internal capacity to understand and apply the lost technologies (Nuclear Power) of the past to gain an advantage over the barbarians.
IV. The Second Foundation (Cognitive & Psychological)
Hidden at "Star's End," the Second Foundation controls the mentalics—the psychology of the leaders. This represents the internal, cognitive state of the entrepreneur.
- Cognitive Adaptability: The Mentalic Touch. The ability to sense changes in the environment and adjust one's decision-making frameworks (metacognition) to steer the ship of state through the chaos.
- Entrepreneurial Intentions (Ajzen): The Speaker's Plan. Action is not random; it is the result of deep psychological planning. The "Theory of Planned Behavior" maps the hidden mental pathways that lead an individual to eventually found a venture.
V. The Mule (The Anomaly / Disruption)
Seldon's math worked perfectly until The Mule arrived. He is the mutant, the outlier, the Black Swan that the statistical models could not predict.
- Schumpeterian Innovation: The Mutant. While the Seldon Plan relies on equilibrium, Schumpeter relies on disruption. The Mule destroys the existing order not through market efficiency, but through a fundamental change in the rules of the game.
- Great Man Theory: The Warlord of Kalgan. Population Ecology says the individual doesn't matter; Great Man Theory says the individual is everything. The Mule proves that one singular, powerful vision can derail the entire galactic economy.
- Chaos & Complexity Theory: The Blind Spot. Small variations in initial conditions (a mutant birth) result in vast, unpredictable changes in the system. This is where the Prime Radiant fails and entrepreneurial intuition must take over.
"The Prime Radiant displays the entire history of humanity as a glowing stream of equations. To the entrepreneur, this is the business plan; to the market, it is destiny."