Rogue Entrepreneurship
Rogue Entrepreneurship: Why Being "Wrong" is the Only Way to be Right
We often think of entrepreneurs as simple risk-takers, but a breakthrough study suggests that the most successful ones are actually something more specific: they are Rogues.
In their 2024 paper Rogue Entrepreneurship, researchers McBride, Packard, and Clark introduce a framework that distinguishes between two very different types of founders: the "Conforming" and the "Rogue."
Conforming vs. Rogue: What's the Difference?
Most business activity falls under Conforming Entrepreneurship. This occurs when a founder launches a venture that aligns with established wisdom and expert judgment.
- The Path: Opening a coffee shop, a SaaS for HR, or a digital agency.
- The Logic: Experts agree these models work. The primary risk is execution (can you do it better than others?).
Rogue Entrepreneurship is fundamentally different. It describes a venture where the core business idea explicitly violates established expert consensus. A Rogue isn't just taking a risk; they are making a bet that the "experts" are systematically wrong.
The "Bulwark" of Consensus
Why would anyone want to bet against the experts? The authors argue that expert consensus creates a "protective bulwark" around the opportunity.
When investors, industry leaders, and regulators agree that an idea is "impossible," "illegal," or "too niche," they unwittingly clear the field of competition. This creates a hidden pocket of massive potential value accessible only to the Rogue. This is entrepreneurial judo: using the weight of expert opinion to shield your discovery while you build a monopoly in the shadows.
The Rogue's Requirement: Being "Rightly" Wrong
The paper emphasizes a critical caveat: being a Rogue isn't enough. To succeed, you must be correct. If you violate consensus and the experts are right, you simply fail. Rogue entrepreneurship only works when the expert consensus is based on a systematic error—a blind spot in the collective way people think about a problem.
Famous "Rogue" Claims
History's most successful empires were built on Rogue claims that violated the consensus of the time:
| Company | The Expert Consensus (The "Bulwark") |
|---|---|
| Airbnb | "Strangers will never let other strangers sleep in their spare bedrooms; it's a safety nightmare." |
| SpaceX | "Orbital rockets cannot be reused; the physics and economics of vertical landing are impossible." |
| Uber | "You cannot operate a taxi-like service without government-issued medallions." |
Watch: Peter Thiel on the "Contrarian Truth"
The concept of Rogue Entrepreneurship is the academic evolution of Peter Thiel's famous philosophy. He argues that every great business is built on a secret: "What important truth do very few people agree with you on?"
Conclusion: The Strategy of Defiance
If you are building something and everyone—from your parents to industry experts—tells you it's a bad idea, don't panic. According to McBride, Packard, and Clark, that rejection might be your greatest competitive advantage. The more "wrong" you appear to the consensus, the more time you have to build before they realize you were right.
Source
McBride, R., Packard, M. D., & Clark, B. B. (2024). Rogue entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 48(1), 392-417.
